The Old College Try

All week, we’ve looked at the Footballoutsiders 2009 Almanac and what it has to say about the Colts and the rest of the AFC South.  The  2009 Almanac is more than just NFL football, however.  It also covers a topic we rarely discuss here at 18to88, but is of great interest to many football fans…college football. 

Though we’ve gone on the record about the Hoosiers once or twice, there is rarely anything good to say about them.  So, since I won’t be unveiling any state secrets, I suppose it’s fair game to tell you that the Almanac is so thorough that it bothers to even cover the humble Hoosiers.

To start out with, the Outsiders declare the Hoosiers to be the only team in the Big 10 with no aspirations of a title at all.  Ouch.  The Hoosiers are ranked 77th overall among Bowl Tier schools.  This comment essentially sums up FO’s opinion about the Indiana:

On defense, the good news is that eight starters return.  The bad news is that they were part of a pretty bad unit in 2008.

Oh.  Ok then.  Moving on…

The Boilers get a look as well, but didn’t fare much better, barely cracking the top 60.  FO sums up the Joe Tiller era quite nicely:

With the way his tenure ended, it is easy to forget just how successful Joe Tiller was at Purdue. He inherited a program that had not experienced a winning record in 12 seasons and immediately turned things around. The Boilermakers did not have a losing record until Tiller’s ninth season and had only two during his 12 years in West Lafayette. Unfortunately, his worst team was probably his last.

So,  at least the Cream and Crimson can rejoice that they will likely be joined by the Black and Gold at the bottom of the Big 10 for another decade or so.

Finally, does Notre Dame offer us any consolation?  Meh.  They break the top 20…I suppose that’s good.  Frankly, the Irish test the limits of ambivalence in my life.  I’m Irish.  I’m from Indiana.  My extended family is all Catholic.  I’m morally obligated to give a crap about lads up in South Bend. 

But on the other hand…they also hired Charlie Weis, and frankly, watching him fail is fun.  So I remain torn.  Plus, when it comes to this year’s team, the refrain is familiar.  I swear I’ve heard this ditty before:

Much will be made about Notre Dame’s schedule in 2009, which may be its weakest in years… A BCS bowl berth is plausible, but there are probably enough stumbling blocks to keep ND’s win total in the single digits.

Hmm, sounds about like nearly every other Fighting Irish team for the last 10 years.  Maybe they make a big bowl, but if they do, they get destroyed.  I guess that’s why we don’t cover college football very much.

So, in summary, if you love college football, you probably aren’t from Indianapolis, but you will love the Football Outsiders 2009 Almanac which has enough pro and college football to choke a camel.

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up FO week with 18 Questions with Mike Tanier.  You don’t want to miss it. 

The Old College Try

All week, we’ve looked at the Footballoutsiders 2009 Almanac and what it has to say about the Colts and the rest of the AFC South.  The  2009 Almanac is more than just NFL football, however.  It also covers a topic we rarely discuss here at 18to88, but is of great interest to many football fans…college football. 

Though we’ve gone on the record about the Hoosiers once or twice, there is rarely anything good to say about them.  So, since I won’t be unveiling any state secrets, I suppose it’s fair game to tell you that the Almanac is so thorough that it bothers to even cover the humble Hoosiers.

To start out with, the Outsiders declare the Hoosiers to be the only team in the Big 10 with no aspirations of a title at all.  Ouch.  The Hoosiers are ranked 77th overall among Bowl Tier schools.  This comment essentially sums up FO’s opinion about the Indiana:

On defense, the good news is that eight starters return.  The bad news is that they were part of a pretty bad unit in 2008.

Oh.  Ok then.  Moving on…

The Boilers get a look as well, but didn’t fare much better, barely cracking the top 60.  FO sums up the Joe Tiller era quite nicely:

With the way his tenure ended, it is easy to forget just how successful Joe Tiller was at Purdue. He inherited a program that had not experienced a winning record in 12 seasons and immediately turned things around. The Boilermakers did not have a losing record until Tiller’s ninth season and had only two during his 12 years in West Lafayette. Unfortunately, his worst team was probably his last.

So,  at least the Cream and Crimson can rejoice that they will likely be joined by the Black and Gold at the bottom of the Big 10 for another decade or so.

Finally, does Notre Dame offer us any consolation?  Meh.  They break the top 20…I suppose that’s good.  Frankly, the Irish test the limits of ambivalence in my life.  I’m Irish.  I’m from Indiana.  My extended family is all Catholic.  I’m morally obligated to give a crap about lads up in South Bend. 

But on the other hand…they also hired Charlie Weis, and frankly, watching him fail is fun.  So I remain torn.  Plus, when it comes to this year’s team, the refrain is familiar.  I swear I’ve heard this ditty before:

Much will be made about Notre Dame’s schedule in 2009, which may be its weakest in years… A BCS bowl berth is plausible, but there are probably enough stumbling blocks to keep ND’s win total in the single digits.

Hmm, sounds about like nearly every other Fighting Irish team for the last 10 years.  Maybe they make a big bowl, but if they do, they get destroyed.  I guess that’s why we don’t cover college football very much.

So, in summary, if you love college football, you probably aren’t from Indianapolis, but you will love the Football Outsiders 2009 Almanac which has enough pro and college football to choke a camel.

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up FO week with 18 Questions with Mike Tanier.  You don’t want to miss it. 

Defensive Stance

Footballoutsiders week continues with a look at the Colts defense today.  Last year’s defense was opportunistic and thanks to Freeney and Mathis, kept the Colts in a lot of games (or got them back into a few), but was riddled with fatal flaws.  Injuries all over the secondary robbed the Horse of what should have been a strength.  The DTs had moments of glory (paging Eric Foster.  Eric Foster to the Goal Line Stand counter, please), but were mostly out matched.  Since the season ended however, the Colts have lost one of the great defensive minds in history (Dungy…did you think I meant Ron Meeks?), drafted/signed a bevy of new beefy DTs, and mostly just got a lot healthier (esp. Brackett and Marlin Jackson).  Colts fans are wildly optimistic that a defense that finished sneaky high last year (10th in the NFL’s flawed rankings), might jump into the top 5.

The 09 Almanac says, “Keep hope alive!”.  First they look at what effect losing Dungy might have on the Colts:

When Dungy left Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers retained defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. Since Kiffin was a long-time associate of Dungy’s, the theory was that the defense would remain elite and fundamentally the same. Dungy’s influence is apparent in looking at Tampa Bay’s DVOA before and after his departure. In Dungy’s last four years in Tampa, his defenses ranked seventh, first, fourth, and second in DVOA. In 2002, the first year after his departure, Tampa Bay had -32.1% DVOA, the best defensive rating of the DVOA Era. (No other defense has been below -30% for a whole year.) The Buccaneers fell to third in the rankings in 2003, and have regressed from that dominant level to merely very good since 2004.

So, eventually the loss of Dungy will be felt, but there’s a good chance it won’t come right away.  The Outsiders also give some fascinating research about what to expect from new D-coordinator Larry Coyer, as well as a hint about the run defense.  When Dungy left Tampa, the run improved dramatically, even as the overall defense declined.  Dungy is a smart guy who knows that stopping the pass is the key to winning.  You need a competant run D, but not even a good one to field a tough overall unit.  The Colts problem most of the years was an inability to even field a mediocre run defense (thanks to the curse of the Corey Simon).

Speaking of Jabba, they love the new tackles coming in this year as well.

The Colts have responded by giving (Ed) Johnson another chance and drafting a couple of big defensive tackles in Fili Moala (USC, second round) and Terrance Taylor (Michigan, fourth round). Moala in particular may be a draft steal; our friend Russ Lande at GM Jr. rated him as this year’s second-best tackle prospect, ahead of first-rounders Peria Jerry and Evander Hood, because of his consistency and explosive closing burst. These players give the Colts the most defensive tackle depth they have had this decade… The Colts now have three defensive tackles over 300 pounds for the first time since the team switched to the Tampa-2

The Almanac is rife with statistical data begging to be poured over for a deeper understanding of how the Colts operate.  Of particular note is this nugget:

DVOA versus TE (negative is good)

2006  -8.4%  12th
2007 -21.6%  2nd
2008 1.6%  14th

So what happened that lowered the Colts to being below average against tight ends (having a DVOA above zero) for the first time in several years?  Sigh…

Just a word of warning, we’ll wrap up our look at the 2009 Almanac tomorrow, and on Thursday, we have an amazing 18 Questions with Mike Tanier of the Outsiders.  It’s spectacular in every possible way.  I promise I’m not overselling it at all.

Links:
I rarely post about my kids because other than me…who cares?  Still, my four year old daughter said today:

My name is Strawberry Shortcake Hello Kitty Blossom.  That’s because I fight bad guys, have fun with my friends, and am a kitty.  Meow.

The knock on the Zombie is that he can’t stay healthy.

Demond Sanders:  Politics should be more like this:

Long Division

One of the things that jumps out to readers of Footballoutsiders is that they try to let the numbers speak for themselves.  They aren’t afraid to take a bold stance if the data calls for it.  Nowhere is that more evident than their utter rejection of popular logic in evaluating the AFC South for the 09 Almanac.

Our long held opinion is that Houston, if Matt Schuab is healthy, will be the second best team in the South.  The Outsiders disagree, saying:

Still, the Texans are basically the same team they were a year ago: slightly below average. They have no magic statistical indicator that portends success.

Their feeling is that the Texans good offense and bad run defense will translate into just about 7 wins and only a 22% of being in the playoff hunt. 

So what of last year’s division winner, the Titans?  We are less concerned with them because of the loss of Haynesworth, and the realization that Kerry Collins is unlikely to duplicate his ’08 results.  FO, has similar thoughts:

The Tennessee defense will continue its slide from dominant in 2007 to very good in 2008 to above average in 2009.  That leaves the Titans in an awkward position, relying on their offense to get them back to the playoffs.

They call Albert Haynesworth “a singular player” and don’t expect the Titans to easily replace him.  Their projection is for 9.3 wins, but with a 64% chance of being in the playoff hunt or better.  So on this point, we are essentially agreed.  The Titans will be formidable, but not nearly as good in 2009.

The biggest point of departure we have from the 1s and 0s of FO would be about the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They have the Jags as the second best team in the South, and are calling for a 10.2 win season.  The guys at FO have always recognized that it takes both common sense and good math skills to predict football.  They joke about how sometimes they don’t even believe their own numbers.  Last year they had the Ravens as a playoff team, and didn’t really believe it themselves until it happened.

The Jags are that team this year.  I scoured the article for a quote that would explain or justify how the Jags could get to 10 wins.  I couldn’t find it.  The article is mostly a hilarious recap of just how inept the Jags have been at drafting for the better part of the last 5 plus seasons.  The closest thing I found to optimism was the final summary of the team in 2009:

Years of mistakes can be painted over in a miracle season, and our projections favor a turnaround in Jacksonville. Smith must move forward as he tries to separate himself from the failures of the past collective.  We’re going to find out in 2009 whether the Jaguars’ story ends with the line, “Meet the new boss,  same as the old boss…”

Not exactly a ringing endorsement.  You have to hand it to these guys, they report what the numbers say, but they don’t try to shoe horn in a false narrative about a team.  Neither FO nor 18to88 can see any reason to like the Jags to rebound in 2009. 

I guess they haven’t invented a computer yet that can fully understand Jack Del Rio’s capacity to sink a team.  If you still need a reason to plunk down the $12 for a copy of the 2009 Almanac, look no further than the Jaguars team report.  It is one of the funniest, most satisfying reads I’ve had in some time.

Links:
This ain’t happening.

On the Way Back Down

We continue our examination of the Footballoutsiders 2009 Almanac today with a look at two of the most important Colts.

There’s never been any debate that Peyton Manning is the most important player in blue and white.  Last year, we caught our first glimpse of his football mortality as he dealt with a knee injury to open camp.  It has always felt like #18 was going to play forever, but in our more rational moments we know he won’t.

We also know that at some point, we’ll see his skills erode.  Many QBs experience career rejuvenation in their 30s, mainly because they finally understand the position.  At the QB position, smart is better than skilled.  Manning has been both for almost his whole career.  At some point, we’ll start to see those skills drop off.  History tells us that QBs start to diminish around age 32.

Peyton just turned 33.

So, is there any evidence his play has dropped off.  Well, there is the curious case of the lack of deep completions last year.  The Almanac points out that:

he completed the fewest 20-plus-yard passes of his career

There are many reasons for this.  Harrison wasn’t himself; the line couldn’t protect him, he had no training camp to get a rhythm.  Those may be the causes.  On the other hand, it certainly did seem like Peyton was under-throwing the deep ball all year.  Was it the knee?  Who knows.  But an honest observer (and we are homers, but never dishonest) would have to say that something looked off.

Perhaps 2008 was a sign of things to come for 18.  As he ages, the deep ball may not be there as it was when he was 28.  Still, he more than proved that he has the chops to be an effective QB in the mid/short range passing game.  FO’s projections for Manning in 2009?  Right on target with the last three years.

66.2%, 4054 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT, 7.7 YPA, 40.9% DVOA, 101.1 Rating

I think all of us would be happy with that.  The Outsiders are projecting another vintage Manning year. 

Whew.

The other critical offensive cog for the Colts is Reggie Wayne.  The FO target age for wideout decline is 30.

Reggie Wayne just turned 31.

Take a look at his three year trends in YPC and DVOA from 2006 to 2008:

YPC: 15.2, 14.5, 14.0
DVOA: 30.9%, 23.1%, 19.2%

As the Outsiders put it:

Wayne was considered Marvin Harrison’s understudy for so long that even as Wayne became the better player, people always assumed he was young. In fact, Wayne turns 31 this season and probably is on the downside of his career.

So what do they for see for 87? 

92 Catches, 1153 yards, 10 TDs, 12.5 YPC, DVOA 16.0%

That would be another Pro-Bowl type year for Wayne, but a decline in his YPC and DVOA would illustrate the cracks in his game starting to show.

 Marvin Harrison played at an elite level until he was 34.   Wayne has three years to separate himself from the pack and become a Hall of Fame caliber WR.  If he can extend his prime past where players normally fall off (like Marvin did), he’ll have a strong case for Canton. If his career follows a more conventional curve, however, he’ll simply go down in history as one of the great Colts ever, and the second best wideout in Indianapolis history.

So the verdict is split.  They see 18 holding steady and improving on 2008, and 87 slipping almost imperceptibly.  Either way, both projections bode well for 2009, if not beyond.

Links:
Bruce breaks his wrist, and a look at the first half.  Note the sidebar.  It says:

Biggest bad surprise: Willy Taveras. No one expected him to be
Rickey Henderson. But no one expected him to be Corey Patterson without
the power. The Reds have to hope he comes around, or make him the
fourth outfielder.

Oh, no one expected him to be Corey Patterson 2?  I DID!  Here’s my exact quote from December 27th:

They had three possible OF options (Hariston Jr, Baldelli, and Taveras)
and they invariably sign the most useless of the three.  Awesome.
Taveras is a glorified pinch runner who could barely post a .300 OB% in
Coors freaking Field.   I know the other two were massive injury risks,
but I’d rather have a guy who might be good when healthy than a guy I
know will play every day and suck.  Why not just resign Corey
Patterson?  Ugh.

I don’t accept “we didn’t know he’d be this bad!” as a line of reasoning.  He’s horrible.  He was horrible last year.  I knew he’d be this bad. Anyone with eyes knew he’d be this bad.
By the way, Baldelli has been a solid bench player for the Red Sox.  Sigh.

Great article on the NFL and Wall Street.  Thanks FO

Johnny O covers Peyton and the AP at the Manning Passing Academy

Video: Manning Passing Academy

On the Way Back Down

We continue our examination of the Footballoutsiders 2009 Almanac today with a look at two of the most important Colts.

There’s never been any debate that Peyton Manning is the most important player in blue and white.  Last year, we caught our first glimpse of his football mortality as he dealt with a knee injury to open camp.  It has always felt like #18 was going to play forever, but in our more rational moments we know he won’t.

We also know that at some point, we’ll see his skills erode.  Many QBs experience career rejuvenation in their 30s, mainly because they finally understand the position.  At the QB position, smart is better than skilled.  Manning has been both for almost his whole career.  At some point, we’ll start to see those skills drop off.  History tells us that QBs start to diminish around age 32.

Peyton just turned 33.

So, is there any evidence his play has dropped off.  Well, there is the curious case of the lack of deep completions last year.  The Almanac points out that:

he completed the fewest 20-plus-yard passes of his career

There are many reasons for this.  Harrison wasn’t himself; the line couldn’t protect him, he had no training camp to get a rhythm.  Those may be the causes.  On the other hand, it certainly did seem like Peyton was under-throwing the deep ball all year.  Was it the knee?  Who knows.  But an honest observer (and we are homers, but never dishonest) would have to say that something looked off.

Perhaps 2008 was a sign of things to come for 18.  As he ages, the deep ball may not be there as it was when he was 28.  Still, he more than proved that he has the chops to be an effective QB in the mid/short range passing game.  FO’s projections for Manning in 2009?  Right on target with the last three years.

66.2%, 4054 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT, 7.7 YPA, 40.9% DVOA, 101.1 Rating

I think all of us would be happy with that.  The Outsiders are projecting another vintage Manning year. 

Whew.

The other critical offensive cog for the Colts is Reggie Wayne.  The FO target age for wideout decline is 30.

Reggie Wayne just turned 31.

Take a look at his three year trends in YPC and DVOA from 2006 to 2008:

YPC: 15.2, 14.5, 14.0
DVOA: 30.9%, 23.1%, 19.2%

As the Outsiders put it:

Wayne was considered Marvin Harrison’s understudy for so long that even as Wayne became the better player, people always assumed he was young. In fact, Wayne turns 31 this season and probably is on the downside of his career.

So what do they for see for 87? 

92 Catches, 1153 yards, 10 TDs, 12.5 YPC, DVOA 16.0%

That would be another Pro-Bowl type year for Wayne, but a decline in his YPC and DVOA would illustrate the cracks in his game starting to show.

 Marvin Harrison played at an elite level until he was 34.   Wayne has three years to separate himself from the pack and become a Hall of Fame caliber WR.  If he can extend his prime past where players normally fall off (like Marvin did), he’ll have a strong case for Canton. If his career follows a more conventional curve, however, he’ll simply go down in history as one of the great Colts ever, and the second best wideout in Indianapolis history.

So the verdict is split.  They see 18 holding steady and improving on 2008, and 87 slipping almost imperceptibly.  Either way, both projections bode well for 2009, if not beyond.

Links:
Bruce breaks his wrist, and a look at the first half.  Note the sidebar.  It says:

Biggest bad surprise: Willy Taveras. No one expected him to be
Rickey Henderson. But no one expected him to be Corey Patterson without
the power. The Reds have to hope he comes around, or make him the
fourth outfielder.

Oh, no one expected him to be Corey Patterson 2?  I DID!  Here’s my exact quote from December 27th:

They had three possible OF options (Hariston Jr, Baldelli, and Taveras)
and they invariably sign the most useless of the three.  Awesome.
Taveras is a glorified pinch runner who could barely post a .300 OB% in
Coors freaking Field.   I know the other two were massive injury risks,
but I’d rather have a guy who might be good when healthy than a guy I
know will play every day and suck.  Why not just resign Corey
Patterson?  Ugh.

I don’t accept “we didn’t know he’d be this bad!” as a line of reasoning.  He’s horrible.  He was horrible last year.  I knew he’d be this bad. Anyone with eyes knew he’d be this bad.
By the way, Baldelli has been a solid bench player for the Red Sox.  Sigh.

Great article on the NFL and Wall Street.  Thanks FO

Johnny O covers Peyton and the AP at the Manning Passing Academy

Video: Manning Passing Academy

Lining up

Welcome to day two of our exploration of the Footballoutsiders 2009 Almanac.  Today we are going to look at some general principles about the offensive line (AKA the most important issue facing the 2009 Colts).  First, let’s look at one of the core issues from the “Pregame Show” portion of the book:

Rushing is more dependent on the offensive line than people realize, but pass protection is more dependent on the quarterback himself than people realize.

We’ll if that doesn’t perfectly describe the 2008 Colts, I don’t know what does.  The 2008 Colts had the lowest adjusted sack rate in the NFL, but Manning was one of the most hit and hurried QBs and the running game was horrible. 

Now let’s look at what FO said about Joseph Addai:

Through one and a half seasons of his career, Addai had won a Super Bowl and looked destined for stardom.

After gaining 100 yards in four of his first seven games as the primary back in 2007, Addai has done so only twice in his past 24 games

Interesting. So 24 games huh?  That goes back to the Chargers game in 07 when…the offensive line started to fall apart.  Does anyone remember that game?  The Colts couldn’t even field a full squad that day, because they had so many linemen hurt. That was followed by the eye bleeder at home against the Chiefs where Addai played his finest game despite no where to run. 

FO’s projections for Kid Joe were incredibly modest:

175 for 687, 3.9 ypc, 4 TDs, 37 catches for 276 and 1 TD

For Brown, they predicted slightly better (though essentially similar) numbers:

147 for 623, 4.3 ypc, 5 TDs, 42 catches for 349

This surprised me.  There is no way that Brown catches more balls than Addai in 2009, barring a major injury.  I also doubt that you’ll see that degree of separation from two young, fast backs playing behind the same offensive line.  If the line is good enough that Brown can average 4.3 ypc, it’ll be good enough that Addai will as well.   I’m not sure there is any real style differences between the two, but last year showed that no matter what the style, there were no holes to run through.  Dom slammed into the line for 3.5 yards.  Joe picked his way for 3.5 yards.

Again, the Almanac is $12 for the PDF, $20 for the printed version.  All week long, we’ll be looking at FO’s Colts-related projections.  We might just have an interview as well.

Links:
So, can we stop the “Peyton has all the weapons” talk?  Fox sports says the Colts WR/TE unit is 15th in the league.  Seems a tad low.  I wouldn’t take the Cowboys or Bucs WRs straight up for the Colts. Ain’t no way.

Scott Rolen?  This was the trade they should have made years ago, but it was nixed for money reasons.  Sigh.  Still, he’s a Hoosier.

Almanac Calls For Sunny Weather

The Football Outsiders have always struggled to project the Colts.  Mathematical models often call for some degree of regression to the mean for elite teams, but the Horse kept on plodding through 12 win seasons as if it was wearing playoff focused blinders.  Whatever the Outsiders called for from the Colts, you count on them being just a little bit better.

Now as I peruse my copy of the massive 2009 Almanac, I see they’ve finally figured it out.  I doubt the incremental changes in DVOA are the cause of the shift in philosophy for projecting the Colts (follow the link if you are interested in nerdy math like me).  Instead, it seems like years of consistency are finally paying off in the projections.  FO says about the Colts in 09:

In last year’s San Diego Chargers article, we noted that when very good teams change coaches, they generally remain very good teams. A look at the Colts roster makes it difficult to imagine that, barring an injury to Peyton Manning, the team will not win double-digit games again.

Huzzah!  FO then continues on its enlightened path by not falling into “The Harrison Trap” (noting Marv left us that day against the Broncos in ’07) nor the “Mudd Pit” (noting Moore and Mudd will be heavily involved).

Here are the projections for the 2009 Indianapolis Colts:

2009: New staff + same Peyton Manning = same results.
2009 Mean Projection: 11.5 wins

Here are the likely number of wins for the Horse.
On the Clock (0-3): 0%
Loserville (4-6): 0%
Mediocrity (7-8): 4%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 28%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 68%

In other words, according to their numbers, Indy has a better than 2 in 3 chance to be right back to the same level they have been at for the past 5 years, and a 96% chance of being in the playoff hunt.  I think all Colts fans would take that in a heartbeart.

The Almanac is a giant 555 page document.  It includes reams of data and commentary for both NCAA and NFL football  I have not read all or most of it.  For now, it is available in PDF form only for the low, low price of $12.  In a few weeks, you’ll be able to order a print copy for $20.  Over the course of the next week, I’ll be offering up one tidbit a day about the 2009 season to wet your appetite, but please consider buying your own copy to support this incredible work.

Seven days of talking about football and math!  What could be better in July?

Links:
Don Banks wusses out.  5 key issues from the AFC South…the Colts 3rd WR and coaching staff are two.  Yawn.

My friend Rich sends in this from the NY Times.  Could new tech finally convince the world that Derek Jeter is a terrible defensive shortstop?  I doubt we’ll ever advance that far.

Michael Smith says Marv’s options are limited.

Almanac Calls For Sunny Weather

The Football Outsiders have always struggled to project the Colts.  Mathematical models often call for some degree of regression to the mean for elite teams, but the Horse kept on plodding through 12 win seasons as if it was wearing playoff focused blinders.  Whatever the Outsiders called for from the Colts, you count on them being just a little bit better.

Now as I peruse my copy of the massive 2009 Almanac, I see they’ve finally figured it out.  I doubt the incremental changes in DVOA are the cause of the shift in philosophy for projecting the Colts (follow the link if you are interested in nerdy math like me).  Instead, it seems like years of consistency are finally paying off in the projections.  FO says about the Colts in 09:

In last year’s San Diego Chargers article, we noted that when very good teams change coaches, they generally remain very good teams. A look at the Colts roster makes it difficult to imagine that, barring an injury to Peyton Manning, the team will not win double-digit games again.

Huzzah!  FO then continues on its enlightened path by not falling into “The Harrison Trap” (noting Marv left us that day against the Broncos in ’07) nor the “Mudd Pit” (noting Moore and Mudd will be heavily involved).

Here are the projections for the 2009 Indianapolis Colts:

2009: New staff + same Peyton Manning = same results.
2009 Mean Projection: 11.5 wins

Here are the likely number of wins for the Horse.
On the Clock (0-3): 0%
Loserville (4-6): 0%
Mediocrity (7-8): 4%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 28%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 68%

In other words, according to their numbers, Indy has a better than 2 in 3 chance to be right back to the same level they have been at for the past 5 years, and a 96% chance of being in the playoff hunt.  I think all Colts fans would take that in a heartbeart.

The Almanac is a giant 555 page document.  It includes reams of data and commentary for both NCAA and NFL football  I have not read all or most of it.  For now, it is available in PDF form only for the low, low price of $12.  In a few weeks, you’ll be able to order a print copy for $20.  Over the course of the next week, I’ll be offering up one tidbit a day about the 2009 season to wet your appetite, but please consider buying your own copy to support this incredible work.

Seven days of talking about football and math!  What could be better in July?

Links:
Don Banks wusses out.  5 key issues from the AFC South…the Colts 3rd WR and coaching staff are two.  Yawn.

My friend Rich sends in this from the NY Times.  Could new tech finally convince the world that Derek Jeter is a terrible defensive shortstop?  I doubt we’ll ever advance that far.

Michael Smith says Marv’s options are limited.

Almanac Calls For Sunny Weather

The Football Outsiders have always struggled to project the Colts.  Mathematical models often call for some degree of regression to the mean for elite teams, but the Horse kept on plodding through 12 win seasons as if it was wearing playoff focused blinders.  Whatever the Outsiders called for from the Colts, you count on them being just a little bit better.

Now as I peruse my copy of the massive 2009 Almanac, I see they’ve finally figured it out.  I doubt the incremental changes in DVOA are the cause of the shift in philosophy for projecting the Colts (follow the link if you are interested in nerdy math like me).  Instead, it seems like years of consistency are finally paying off in the projections.  FO says about the Colts in 09:

In last year’s San Diego Chargers article, we noted that when very good teams change coaches, they generally remain very good teams. A look at the Colts roster makes it difficult to imagine that, barring an injury to Peyton Manning, the team will not win double-digit games again.

Huzzah!  FO then continues on its enlightened path by not falling into “The Harrison Trap” (noting Marv left us that day against the Broncos in ’07) nor the “Mudd Pit” (noting Moore and Mudd will be heavily involved).

Here are the projections for the 2009 Indianapolis Colts:

2009: New staff + same Peyton Manning = same results.
2009 Mean Projection: 11.5 wins

Here are the likely number of wins for the Horse.
On the Clock (0-3): 0%
Loserville (4-6): 0%
Mediocrity (7-8): 4%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 28%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 68%

In other words, according to their numbers, Indy has a better than 2 in 3 chance to be right back to the same level they have been at for the past 5 years, and a 96% chance of being in the playoff hunt.  I think all Colts fans would take that in a heartbeart.

The Almanac is a giant 555 page document.  It includes reams of data and commentary for both NCAA and NFL football  I have not read all or most of it.  For now, it is available in PDF form only for the low, low price of $12.  In a few weeks, you’ll be able to order a print copy for $20.  Over the course of the next week, I’ll be offering up one tidbit a day about the 2009 season to wet your appetite, but please consider buying your own copy to support this incredible work.

Seven days of talking about football and math!  What could be better in July?

Links:
Don Banks wusses out.  5 key issues from the AFC South…the Colts 3rd WR and coaching staff are two.  Yawn.

My friend Rich sends in this from the NY Times.  Could new tech finally convince the world that Derek Jeter is a terrible defensive shortstop?  I doubt we’ll ever advance that far.

Michael Smith says Marv’s options are limited.